http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/idea/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits The latest comments on AAPL at an all time high on light trading. Time to take profits? Sat, 26 Jan 2008 05:25:50 -0800 en-us Copyright TNC New Media Inc., 2006 - 2012 http://www.traderinterviews.com/images/traderinterviews_144x19.gif http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab 144 16 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c37 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c37 Sat, 26 Jan 2008 05:25:50 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c36 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c36 Fri, 25 Jan 2008 04:28:24 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c35
I have used the RET (Elliot Wave) as well as my own indicators to come to that conclusion.

The market/sector could probably "pull" AAPL for a 2 week rebound. It has fallen below the 200MA so it has a lot of resistance there.]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c35 Fri, 25 Jan 2008 04:14:32 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c34 Yesterday I listened to Apple's conference call just to see if there was an announcement that Jobs had tragically fallen off of his cashpile. There were no such indulgences. All I heard was that the company couldn't be better. Of course one will always hear things of this nature, but they had the numbers to prove it ( craftily handled by accountants or not, let's not forget this is the company that released the iphone last year, as well as recently released the Macbook Air and a new online movie rental service that rivals Netflix). Well, I suppose we can't predict the road ahead by looking in the rear view mirror. All I can say is that there is an awful lot of supply in an awfully short period of time, and we should be seeing some demand here soon. $135 cannot be AAPL's equalibrium.]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c34 Fri, 25 Jan 2008 03:55:57 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c33 Apple will be at $600 in 18 months. I'm not so sure about that.]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c33 Fri, 04 Jan 2008 21:08:32 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c32 http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/tc2008014_140372.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

Now that AAPL has declined my BWB is making money, and the potential to do even better, if the stock rallies after any announcement. It was not a bad idea.]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c32 Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:51:55 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c31 Apple daytrading: How to cash in on the Macworld keynote effect]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c31 Wed, 02 Jan 2008 21:36:56 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c30
There is also MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, that is more of a stock mover than earnings themselves. If there is nothing amazing in the pipeline, chances are the stock will not make much of a move. Last year was the iPhone, and the stock DID move. I don't expect a similar announcement this year. There are talks about a flash memory-based MacBook, which may be a technological leap but not a commercial leap.

One can take advantage of the high Implied volatility playing a condor or a Broken-Wing Butterfly. I actually have one BWB at play. AAPL would have to exceed 210 for me to lose money. Here is my trade:

Long 10 AAPL Jan08 195 call
Short 20 AAPL Jan08 200 call
Long 10 AAPL Jan08 210 call

My breakeven point is 206, my max profit would be $6210 at $200/share, but if the stock falls, I make $1220, anywhere below $195.

The volatility should drop strongly during or after Steve Jobs usual keynote address. The stock is currently at $198/share and expect to remain around this number, until the actual keynote. Then all bets are off...

BTW, My max risk is $3780.]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c30 Tue, 01 Jan 2008 18:47:38 -0800 http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c27
Hope that helps your decision. (I may even look for an intraday reversal to the short side over the next week or so...thanks!)]]> http://www.traderinterviews.com/idealab/entry/view/aapl-at-an-all-time-high-on-light-trading-time-to-take-profits#c27 Sat, 29 Dec 2007 23:39:34 -0800