TRAVELING ALONG THE GREAT WALL http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-03-17/Thelascone-90.png
Having traveled in China in 2006, I learned so much about the most populated country in the world. After stopping in Beijing, Xi'an, Chunking, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, it seemed to me that China is a lot like the USA was in the 40's and 50's with a lot more people... If this is true, then there is still going be a lot more growth there in the future. It is a place where more growth and innovation is taking place than anywhere else on the planet. I have written a few articles about China in past newsletters, and will probably start to add more China investment ideas in the future. As we have mentioned before, the best way to invest in China's growth, is to buy the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI).
Why do I mention the opportunity in China ? Because in the not-too-distant future, the economy of China will be nearly twice as large as that of the United States and as big as the economies of North America, Europe, and Japan - combined. How do I know China will be so large? One way is to look at the population of China and then make a conservative projection about how fast the Chinese economy will grow. For China's economy to be as large as the entire developed world's, the typical Chinese worker's income must only rise to one-half the level of the average American's income. This feat is easily attainable, even though the average Chinese now earns only about one-eighth the income of the average worker in the U.S.
FXI consists of some of the best companies in China. I actually spent one day in Shanghai observing how well some of these companies were doing. The British owned the 19th century ... America owned the 20th century... In the long run China will own the 21st century. So it's probably a good idea to have a portion of your investments there.
Comments
The one thing I wonder about the average Chinese worker's incoming going from 1/8th to 1/2 the average American's, is that won't this have a large effect on the cost of Chinese imports (for us), and have a dampening effect on the growth of the economy? It seems almost a self-defeating way of growing the economy quickly. But perhaps the wage of the worker isn't a large part of the cost of the goods?
China Raises Stamp Duty to Cool Stock Market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/18910940/site/14081545/
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/06/jim_stack_on_sh.html
How DO you say ‘bubble’ in Mandarin?
I have been telling subscribers for over a year now to invest in Chinese Stocks. Prices have steadily climbed over that period. I recently read another view from a man living in China. ... and thought I should print it.
“All the people I know in China now gamble in stock. On one of China’s TV stations yesterday, was the report that out of the 16 million people in Shanghai, close to 11 million now put money into the stock market. Almost everyone - you name it: taxi driver, security guard, mini fruit-shop owner, high school student, retiree. But in the long run, a lot of this will end in tears, no matter how quickly China’s GDP grows. There is simply no decent research to educate Chinese people on how investing is different from speculating out there.â€
You should decide what profit expectations you will be happy with .. and put a mental stop at the price you will sell FXI.
But don't forget this : A gradual transfer of wealth and power is currently underway
Thanks to globalization and economic reforms, the great wealth divide between the industrialized nations and the “emerging†economies is contracting. Over the coming decades, I anticipate this process to accelerate. In other words, I believe the future will bring rising consumption and a higher standard of living in today’s impoverished countries (China, India, Brazil and other “third world†countries), whereas we are likely to witness the reverse in the United States and parts of Western Europe.
Over the past decades, the United States has been the engine of global growth; however its dominance will be challenged in the not too distant future. If my assessment is correct, China will replace the United States as the world’s single most important economy. Before you dismiss my claim as a far-fetched fantasy, I want you to consider that China has the biggest population in the world, the largest foreign exchange reserves (over US$1 trillion), a booming economy, an extremely high savings rate and expanding surpluses. Moreover, its currency is extremely undervalued and China (despite extremely low per-capita consumption levels) has already surpassed the United States as the biggest consumer nation.
Skeptics who doubt China’s role in the global economy should take note of the fact that Europe already imports more from China than it does from the United States. To top it all, the U.S. is the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen, its debt to GDP ratio is over 400%, it has a negative personal savings rate, its currency is overvalued and its society is heavily dependent on consuming cheap, imported goods.